手法より重要な環境確認とは?

トレードをする際にはテクニカル分析を行い発注と決済のタイミングを計っていくと思います。いわゆる手法を活用してトレードをしていくというやつです。その際にも「環境認識」と言わるトレンドがどうなっているのか?を週足や日足など長期足を確認するという事も必要です。

例えば、手法では上昇見込みがあるので買いで考えていても、日足のトレンドでは下降であれば割が悪くなります。トレンドに従って値動きは圧力を受けやすいため、同じ上下でも下降時のほうが強烈になるからです。なので、手法と環境認識はセットで行っていく事が良いと思います。

実戦では手法と環境が同方向であればやりやすいですがそうでない時もあります。手法では買いだけどトレンドは下降であれば買い目線でポジションを持っても、決済は早めに行っていく必要もあるでしょう。トレンドの中の反発を狙ってのトレードになると思います。

トレンドとは大河のようなものであり、流れに沿って泳いでいけば楽に進むことができます。しかし、逆らって進もうと思えば抵抗が激しく藻屑になる事もあります。それほど強力なパワーを持っていて実力云々よりもトレンドに乗れるかどうかが大切になります。

そして、もう一つお伝えしたいことは上記のようなノウハウも重要なのですが、運というか自流かどうかを判断する環境認識も重要です。いつもと同じなのに何をしても勝てる時はないでしょうか?これは自流が来ている時であり大きくロットを張って勝負をするべきです。

自分では理解ができていない部分で相場とやり方がフィットしている、もしくは、トレンドに乗れている事なので、頭で考えるより結果を見て柔軟に対応していくべきです。頭で考えるとリスクが気になり行動が遅れてしまいます。それが逆にタイミングを遅くしてしまいます。

つまり、勝率が良くてリスクリワードも保ててるなら勝負に出るべきです。自分のツキ、トレンドに乗れているなど理由は後で考えても良いと思います。まずは正しい環境認識を行い結果ベースで考えていくという事をしていくと結果も変わってくると思います。

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